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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 45.4%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 45.4 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (0.849) = 4.251
  4. Absolute miss = |4.251| = 4.251

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89340, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv