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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 46.9%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 46.9 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (-0.217) = 0.417
  4. Absolute miss = |0.417| = 0.417

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89339, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv