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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.2% · Republican 49.9%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.2 − 49.9 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (-1.710) = 1.010
  4. Absolute miss = |1.010| = 1.010

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89339, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv