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2024 Senate · Nevada

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 840 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.8% · Republican 44%

D+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.8 − 44 = 5.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 5.80 − (1.643) = 4.157
  4. Absolute miss = |4.157| = 4.157

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89338, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv