Skip to content

2024 Senate · Michigan

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 790 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 45.2%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 45.2 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (0.341) = 3.359
  4. Absolute miss = |3.359| = 3.359

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89337, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv