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2024 Senate · Arizona

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.1% · Republican 45.2%

D+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.1 − 45.2 = 4.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 4.90 − (2.406) = 2.494
  4. Absolute miss = |2.494| = 2.494

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89336, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv