2024 Senate · Wisconsin
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.849) = 0.151
- Absolute miss = |0.151| = 0.151
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89330, race ID 9534 (538 database).
population: lv