2024 President · Virginia
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 45%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.767) = 0.234
- Absolute miss = |0.234| = 0.234
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89328, race ID 8895 (538 database).
population: lv