2024 President · New York
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 41%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.91% · Republican 43.31%
D+12.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 41 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 55.906 − 43.315 = 12.591
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (12.591) = 3.409
- Absolute miss = |3.409| = 3.409
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89326, race ID 8860 (538 database).
population: lv