2024 Senate · Missouri
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 54%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.84% · Republican 55.57%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 54 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 41.840 − 55.572 = -13.732
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-13.732) = 2.732
- Absolute miss = |2.732| = 2.732
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89324, race ID 9518 (538 database).
population: lv