2024 President · Missouri
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 54%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.08% · Republican 58.49%
R+18.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 54 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 40.082 − 58.491 = -18.409
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-18.409) = 3.408
- Absolute miss = |3.408| = 3.408
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89324, race ID 8826 (538 database).
population: lv