2024 Senate · Michigan
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.341) = 5.659
- Absolute miss = |5.659| = 5.659
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89322, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: lv