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2024 President · California

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 64% · Republican 32%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.47% · Republican 38.33%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 64 − 32 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.468 − 38.333 = 20.135
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (20.135) = 11.865
  4. Absolute miss = |11.865| = 11.865

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89320, race ID 8762 (538 database).

population: lv