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2024 President · Vermont

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,167 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 31%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.83% · Republican 32.32%

D+31.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 31 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.827 − 32.319 = 31.508
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (31.508) = 0.492
  4. Absolute miss = |0.492| = 0.492

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89307, race ID 8899 (538 database).

population: lv