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2024 Senate · Rhode Island

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 708 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 40%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.90% · Republican 39.85%

D+20.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.898 − 39.850 = 20.048
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (20.048) = -6.048
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.048| = 6.048

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89300, race ID 9528 (538 database).

population: lv