Skip to content

2024 President · Rhode Island

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 708 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 40%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.54% · Republican 41.76%

D+13.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.544 − 41.763 = 13.781
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (13.781) = 0.219
  4. Absolute miss = |0.219| = 0.219

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89300, race ID 8877 (538 database).

population: lv