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2024 House · Maine

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 683 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 100.39% · Republican 99.51%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 100.385 − 99.506 = 0.879
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.879) = 0.121
  4. Absolute miss = |0.121| = 0.121

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89298, race ID 9993 (538 database).

population: lv