2024 House · Maine
U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 28%
D+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.70% · Republican 36.39%
D+22.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 28 = 28.00
- Actual margin = 58.703 − 36.390 = 22.313
- Signed miss = 28.00 − (22.313) = 5.687
- Absolute miss = |5.687| = 5.687
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89298, race ID 9719 (538 database).
population: lv