Skip to content

2024 Governor · New Hampshire

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 2,814 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.27% · Republican 53.61%

R+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.272 − 53.611 = -9.339
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-9.339) = 5.339
  4. Absolute miss = |5.339| = 5.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89297, race ID 9542 (538 database).

population: lv