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2024 President · New Hampshire

U. New Hampshire · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 2,814 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.87%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.653 − 47.873 = 2.780
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.780) = 2.220
  4. Absolute miss = |2.220| = 2.220

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89297, race ID 8848 (538 database).

population: lv