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2024 Senate · Nevada

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 792 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47.9%

D+3.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47.9 = 3.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 3.10 − (1.643) = 1.457
  4. Absolute miss = |1.457| = 1.457

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89296, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: rv