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2024 Senate · Arizona

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 801 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 48.3%

D+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 48.3 = 2.20
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 2.20 − (2.406) = -0.206
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.206| = 0.206

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89295, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: rv