2024 President · Arizona
Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 801 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 47.6% · Republican 51.1%
R+3.5
The certified result
Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%
R+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47.6 − 51.1 = -3.50
- Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
- Signed miss = -3.50 − (-5.527) = 2.027
- Absolute miss = |2.027| = 2.027
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89295, race ID 8759 (538 database).
population: rv