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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 835 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 48.6%

D+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 48.6 = 1.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 1.90 − (0.849) = 1.051
  4. Absolute miss = |1.051| = 1.051

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89292, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: rv