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2024 President · Wisconsin

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 835 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48.7%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48.7 = 0.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 0.30 − (-0.859) = 1.159
  4. Absolute miss = |1.159| = 1.159

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89292, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: rv