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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 903 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 49.6%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 49.6 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-1.710) = 0.810
  4. Absolute miss = |0.810| = 0.810

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89290, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: rv