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2024 President · national

Patriot Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,115 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 48.1%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 48.1 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (-1.472) = 2.772
  4. Absolute miss = |2.772| = 2.772

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89289, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: rv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes