2024 President · Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 460 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.710) = 3.710
- Absolute miss = |3.710| = 3.710
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89269, race ID 8872 (538 database).
population: lv