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2024 President · national

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 49.2%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 49.2 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (-1.472) = 1.672
  4. Absolute miss = |1.672| = 1.672

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89251, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes