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2024 President · Nevada

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 782 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 51.4%

R+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 51.4 = -5.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = -5.50 − (-3.099) = -2.401
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.401| = 2.401

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89250, race ID 8857 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv