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2024 Senate · Arizona

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 967 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 49.1%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 49.1 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (2.406) = -4.106
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.106| = 4.106

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89244, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv