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2024 President · Arizona

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 967 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45.1% · Republican 51.9%

R+6.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.1 − 51.9 = -6.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -6.80 − (-5.527) = -1.273
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.273| = 1.273

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89244, race ID 8759 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv