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2024 President · Iowa

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44.8% · Republican 53.9%

R+9.1

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 55.73%

R+13.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.8 − 53.9 = -9.10
  2. Actual margin = 42.517 − 55.727 = -13.210
  3. Signed miss = -9.10 − (-13.210) = 4.110
  4. Absolute miss = |4.110| = 4.110

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89240, race ID 8788 (538 database).

population: lv