Skip to content

2024 President · Missouri

Remington · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 721 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 54%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.08% · Republican 58.49%

R+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 54 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.082 − 58.491 = -18.409
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-18.409) = 4.408
  4. Absolute miss = |4.408| = 4.408

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89226, race ID 8826 (538 database).

population: lv