2024 Senate · Wyoming
Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · method not reported
The poll said
Democrat 25.7% · Republican 73.2%
R+47.5
The certified result
Democrat 24.12% · Republican 75.11%
R+51.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 25.7 − 73.2 = -47.50
- Actual margin = 24.124 − 75.112 = -50.988
- Signed miss = -47.50 − (-50.988) = 3.488
- Absolute miss = |3.488| = 3.488
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89216, race ID 9535 (538 database).
population: lv