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2024 President · Wisconsin

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 889 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.859) = 3.859
  4. Absolute miss = |3.859| = 3.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89205, race ID 8905 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv