Skip to content

2024 President · Michigan

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 985 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.414) = 3.414
  4. Absolute miss = |3.414| = 3.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89201, race ID 8820 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv