Skip to content

2024 President · Arizona

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 880 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 50%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.527) = 4.527
  4. Absolute miss = |4.527| = 4.527

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89199, race ID 8759 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv