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2024 Senate · Virginia

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.6% · Republican 41.7%

D+9.9

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.44%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.6 − 41.7 = 9.90
  2. Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.443 = 8.923
  3. Signed miss = 9.90 − (8.923) = 0.977
  4. Absolute miss = |0.977| = 0.977

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89187, race ID 9504 (538 database).

population: lv