2024 Senate · California
Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 611 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 35.8%
D+24.2
The certified result
Democrat 58.87% · Republican 41.13%
D+17.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 35.8 = 24.20
- Actual margin = 58.873 − 41.127 = 17.746
- Signed miss = 24.20 − (17.746) = 6.455
- Absolute miss = |6.455| = 6.455
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89186, race ID 9506 (538 database).
population: lv