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2024 President · Nevada

Susquehanna · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 50.2%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 50.2 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-3.099) = -2.901
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.901| = 2.901

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89182, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv