2024 President · Maine CD-2
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 484 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 49%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.22% · Republican 53.75%
R+9.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 44.224 − 53.752 = -9.528
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-9.528) = 4.528
- Absolute miss = |4.528| = 4.528
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89171, race ID 8810 (538 database).
population: lv