2024 President · Maine CD-1
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 482 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 37%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.80% · Republican 37.97%
D+21.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 37 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 59.798 − 37.968 = 21.830
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (21.830) = -0.830
- Absolute miss = |-0.830| = 0.830
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89170, race ID 8809 (538 database).
population: lv