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2024 Senate · Nevada

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 44.9%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 44.9 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (1.643) = 2.057
  4. Absolute miss = |2.057| = 2.057

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89162, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv