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2024 President · Nevada

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 48.3%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 48.3 = 0.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = 0.30 − (-3.099) = 3.399
  4. Absolute miss = |3.399| = 3.399

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89162, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv