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2024 President · Michigan

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 1,356 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 48%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 48 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.414) = 4.414
  4. Absolute miss = |4.414| = 4.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89161, race ID 8820 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv