Skip to content

2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 1,558 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.217) = 2.217
  4. Absolute miss = |2.217| = 2.217

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89160, race ID 9527 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv