Skip to content

2024 House · Maine

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 484 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 100.39% · Republican 99.51%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 100.385 − 99.506 = 0.879
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (0.879) = 11.121
  4. Absolute miss = |11.121| = 11.121

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89158, race ID 9993 (538 database).

population: lv