2024 Senate · Maine
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 8% · Republican 28%
R+20.0
The certified result
Democrat 10.83% · Republican 34.64%
R+23.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 8 − 28 = -20.00
- Actual margin = 10.830 − 34.642 = -23.812
- Signed miss = -20.00 − (-23.812) = 3.812
- Absolute miss = |3.812| = 3.812
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89158, race ID 9512 (538 database).
population: lv