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2024 Senate · Virginia

Roanoke College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 851 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 40%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.44%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 40 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.443 = 8.923
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (8.923) = 2.077
  4. Absolute miss = |2.077| = 2.077

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89157, race ID 9504 (538 database).

population: lv